Positive Points In Pakistan’s Economy Can Make It An Asian Tiger by increasing its Size by 5 Times In The Coming (Future) 10 To 15 Years By 2030-35 (26 points)
Pakistan is a land of opportunities bright future ahead. Pakistan’s GDP can go up to $1.868 trillion in the coming 10 years.
- Remittances in Pakistan increased to $6.122 billion (above $2 billion per month) in the second quarter (3 months) of 2020 from $5.627 billion in the first quarter of 2020. In the quarter relating to July 2017, they were $4.791 billion. Remittances in 2018-19 were $21.7 billion and they were $23.1 billion in 2019-20; an increase of 6% per year.
- A report from World Bank says, CPEC can add an extra 14.06% to Pakistan’s GDP in just 10 years (till 2030).
- The Gwadar Port and the Gwadar city can add around $200 billion to $300 billion in the country’s GDP by 2050.
- The oil consumption may also start decreasing with the arrival of solar and electrical vehicles, thus, decreasing the import bill for oil. Pakistani coal, solar and wind energy may also play their roles in the long run for Pakistan’s future energy requirements.
- The Information Technology and ITeS services have surged by 23.71% in single year (2020) from $994.848 million (2019) to $1.230 billion (2020).
The Federal Minister for Information Technology and Telecommunication has told media about $5 billion target of IT exports by the year 2023 (an increase of $1 billion per year).
- The current account deficit has decreased by 78% in 2020. It was 4.8% ($13.43 billion) of GDP in 2019 and now it is 1.1% ($2.96 billion) of GDP.
- Pakistan’s exports bill has gone down from $24.3 billion in 2019 to $22.5 billion in 2020 whereas the imports have decreased from $51.9 billion to $42.4 billion bringing the trade deficit down from $27.6 billion to $19.9 billion. The exports are now showing a rising trend during the recent months.
- The Vision 2030 also emphasizes on the role of Knowledge Economy in the coming years. It means a worthwhile increase in Pakistan’s GDP in the coming years can be obtained with targeted work on Knowledge Economy.
Huge number of population that is getting medical, engineering, financial, digital and earning instructions from local and foreign institutions will add a worth mentioning percentage to the overall GDP of Pakistan.
- The World Travel and Tourism Council says that Pakistan has huge potential in tourism and the government plans to make the tourism industry to earn US$6 billion per year by the year 2025.
- The government of Pakistan has made a new law named Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act (FRDLA) so as to keep government’s borrowing within specific limits in future.
- Pak-Iran gas pipeline and other such projects can lower energy prices in Pakistan resulting in a boost in exports and industrialization.
- The infrastructure, housing and construction sectors can also boost Pakistan’s economy as the need for buildings has greatly risen in the country. Government is already facilitating people for this.
- Arif Habib Limited foresees KSE-100 index to be crossing the 51,000 points mark in the coming 5 months.
- With the decrease in global growth during the Covid-19 pandemic which is around -4.9, Pakistan’s economy is affected by -0.2% (in 2020-21). The effect is minor as compared to the impact on other economies of the world. Global growth is projected at –4.9 percent in 2020. The Indian economy has shrunk by 23.9% during this period.
- Pakistan initiated talks for debt cancellation in 2009 and the issue is still under consideration.
- Pakistan’s economy (42nd in 2020) is expected to become the 16th largest economy by the year 2050 in terms of its GDP as is projected by the ‘Big Four’ auditors.
It means the country’s GDP would overtake the GDPs of Italy, Canada, Hungary, Spain and many other rich countries of the world.
- Presently, Pakistan’s economy is 23rd largest in terms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP).
On Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) basis, PwC has projected Pakistan’s GDP to be $1.868 trillion by 2030 and $4.236 trillion by the year 2050.
- Recent IMF report says that the current 39 months debt program will bring Pakistan’s financial situation out of crisis.
- Pakistan’s GDP may reach $270 billion mark in December 2020 and $310 billion in 2021 as per the global analysts.
- Increase in the employment rate of the available youth from the current 48% to 90% or more can make things change positively in real time. Analysts say that CPEC alone may create 700,000 direct jobs and 1.4 million indirect jobs.
- The current account balance has become surplus by $424 million in July 2020.
- The undocumented economy of Pakistan is already under government’s surveillance and the government is taking steps to bring it in documented form. Once it is done things will further be better.
- Opening new medical, engineering and other financial schools can save Pakistan of billions of USD which students spend when they study abroad.
- Pakistan’s Tax base is too low (2.5 million tax payers). If they are doubled or tripled in the coming 10 years, Pakistan’s tax collection will also multiply the same way.
- Pakistan’s economy can boost by opening ways for the hidden economy of Pakistan, reforms in real estate, precious metals, precious stones and cash crops like bhang (Hemp production that the government has recently allowed), rice, olive oil, edible oils, Eastern Medicine, etc., and by bringing them into mainstream.
- Coal production and the use of topnotch technology in energy sector would also mean huge increase in GDP.